Friday, August 7, 2009

where advertising will decline

...some of the predictions in the Communications Industry Forecast from the private equity firm Veronis Suhler Stevenson, scheduled for release on Tuesday.

The segments where advertising will decline most rapidly in 2009...are newspapers (down 18.7 percent, to $35.5 billion); consumer magazines (down 14.8 percent, to $11 billion); radio (down 11.7 percent, to $15.8 billion); and broadcast television (down 10.1 percent, to $43.0 billion). Veronis Suhler expects a few sectors to increase their advertising dollars this year, including mobile (up 18.1 percent, to $1.3 billion) and the Internet (up 9.2 percent, to $23.8 billion).

“...Newspapers, consumer magazines, TV and radio are shrinking and will not, in that period of time, get back to what they saw before...”

...the media industry...is expected to be the third-fastest-growing economic sector over the next five years, after mining and construction....it will be drawn from areas like word-of-mouth marketing and public relations (with a 9.2 percent compound annual growth rate from 2008 through 2013), branded entertainment (9.3 percent) and the Internet and mobile devices (10.2 percent).

...Some of the fastest-growing ones are creative strategies that have lately gained favor among marketers. They include paid product placement, with a compound annual growth rate from 2008 to 2013 of 17.6 percent; e-mail marketing and in-game advertisements (both 18.5 percent); mobile advertising outside of texting (33 percent); paid interactive television gaming (38.7 percent); mobile advertising and content tied to broadcast television (35.5 percent); mobile gaming and advertising (46.2 percent); and Internet and mobile home video downloads (34.4 percent).

Hollywood will have troubles ahead...DVD sales...declined 5.8 percent in 2008, and they are expected to shrink to $ 19.5 billion by 2013, well below 2008’s level of $24 billion...box-office ticket sales...will dip and rise over the next few years, the overall trend is positive...

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